Assessing Potential Resource Use Conflicts Between Wildlife and Recreationists in Gwaii Haanas National Park Reserve, British Columbia

Gwaii Haanas National Park Reserve and Haida Heritage Site, located off the northwest coast of British Columbia, represents a remote wilderness and cultural experience for many visitors. Ecological integrity is a priority for Canadian national parks that requires effective management of tourism and visitation, which constitute internal threats to many parks. I developed a GIs-based method to examine patterns of visitor use and identified potential conflict areas by determining how intensively used zones coincided with seabird colonies and Peregrine Falcon eyries. Overnight sites and travel activity are spatially and temporally heterogeneous over the Gwaii Haanas landscape and vary with visitor types. Wildlife sites, near attraction sites, were most susceptible to refuge boundary violations with peaks occurring during July and August, which is consistent with the pattern of visitor entry. Recommendations for park managers are framed within a spectrum of management options and challenges associated with marine reserve management

Coupled Networks of Permanent Protected Areas and Dynamic Conservation Areas for Biodiversity Conservation Under Climate Change

The complexity of climate change impacts on ecological processes necessitates flexible and adaptive conservation strategies that cross traditional disciplines. Current strategies involving protected areas are predominantly fixed in space, and may on their own be inadequate under climate change. Here, we propose a novel approach to climate adaptation that combines permanent protected areas with temporary conservation areas to create flexible networks. Previous work has tended to consider permanent and dynamic protection as separate actions, but their integration could draw on the strengths of both approaches to improve biodiversity conservation and help manage for ecological uncertainty in the coming decades. As there are often time lags in the establishment of new permanent protected areas, the inclusion of dynamic conservation areas within permanent networks could provide critical transient protection to mitigate land-use changes and biodiversity redistributions. This integrated approach may be particularly useful in highly human-modified and fragmented landscapes where areas of conservation value are limited and long-term place-based protection is unfeasible. To determine when such an approach may be feasible, we propose the use of a decision framework. Under certain scenarios, these coupled networks have the potential to increase spatio-temporal network connectivity and help maintain biodiversity and ecological processes under climate change. Implementing these networks would require multidisciplinary scientific evidence, new policies, creative funding solutions, and broader acceptance of a dynamic approach to biodiversity conservation

Coupled networks of permanent protected areas and dynamic conservation areas for biodiversity conservation under climate change

The complexity of climate change impacts on ecological processes necessitates flexible and adaptive conservation strategies that cross traditional disciplines. Current strategies involving protected areas are predominantly fixed in space, and may on their own be inadequate under climate change. Here, we propose a novel approach to climate adaptation that combines permanent protected areas with temporary conservation areas to create flexible networks. Previous work has tended to consider permanent and dynamic protection as separate actions, but their integration could draw on the strengths of both approaches to improve biodiversity conservation and help manage for ecological uncertainty in the coming decades. As there are often time lags in the establishment of new permanent protected areas, the inclusion of dynamic conservation areas within permanent networks could provide critical transient protection to mitigate land-use changes and biodiversity redistributions. This integrated approach may be particularly useful in highly human-modified and fragmented landscapes where areas of conservation value are limited and long-term place-based protection is unfeasible. To determine when such an approach may be feasible, we propose the use of a decision framework. Under certain scenarios, these coupled networks have the potential to increase spatio-temporal network connectivity and help maintain biodiversity and ecological processes under climate change. Implementing these networks would require multidisciplinary scientific evidence, new policies, creative funding solutions, and broader acceptance of a dynamic approach to biodiversity conservation

Global maps of soil temperature

Research in global change ecology relies heavily on global climatic grids derived from estimates of air temperature in open areas at around 2 m above the ground. These climatic grids do not reflect conditions below vegetation canopies and near the ground surface, where critical ecosystem functions occur and most terrestrial species reside. Here, we provide global maps of soil temperature and bioclimatic variables at a 1-km2 resolution for 0–5 and 5–15 cm soil depth. These maps were created by calculating the difference (i.e. offset) between in situ soil temperature measurements, based on time series from over 1200 1-km2 pixels (summarized from 8519 unique temperature sensors) across all the world\u27s major terrestrial biomes, and coarse-grained air temperature estimates from ERA5-Land (an atmospheric reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). We show that mean annual soil temperature differs markedly from the corresponding gridded air temperature, by up to 10°C (mean = 3.0 ± 2.1°C), with substantial variation across biomes and seasons. Over the year, soils in cold and/or dry biomes are substantially warmer (+3.6 ± 2.3°C) than gridded air temperature, whereas soils in warm and humid environments are on average slightly cooler (−0.7 ± 2.3°C). The observed substantial and biome-specific offsets emphasize that the projected impacts of climate and climate change on near-surface biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are inaccurately assessed when air rather than soil temperature is used, especially in cold environments. The global soil-related bioclimatic variables provided here are an important step forward for any application in ecology and related disciplines. Nevertheless, we highlight the need to fill remaining geographic gaps by collecting more in situ measurements of microclimate conditions to further enhance the spatiotemporal resolution of global soil temperature products for ecological applications

Global maps of soil temperature

Research in global change ecology relies heavily on global climatic grids derived from estimates of air temperature in open areas at around 2 m above the ground. These climatic grids do not reflect conditions below vegetation canopies and near the ground surface, where critical ecosystem functions occur and most terrestrial species reside. Here, we provide global maps of soil temperature and bioclimatic variables at a 1-km² resolution for 0–5 and 5–15 cm soil depth. These maps were created by calculating the difference (i.e., offset) between in-situ soil temperature measurements, based on time series from over 1200 1-km² pixels (summarized from 8500 unique temperature sensors) across all the world’s major terrestrial biomes, and coarse-grained air temperature estimates from ERA5-Land (an atmospheric reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). We show that mean annual soil temperature differs markedly from the corresponding gridded air temperature, by up to 10°C (mean = 3.0 ± 2.1°C), with substantial variation across biomes and seasons. Over the year, soils in cold and/or dry biomes are substantially warmer (+3.6 ± 2.3°C) than gridded air temperature, whereas soils in warm and humid environments are on average slightly cooler (-0.7 ± 2.3°C). The observed substantial and biome-specific offsets emphasize that the projected impacts of climate and climate change on near-surface biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are inaccurately assessed when air rather than soil temperature is used, especially in cold environments. The global soil-related bioclimatic variables provided here are an important step forward for any application in ecology and related disciplines. Nevertheless, we highlight the need to fill remaining geographic gaps by collecting more in-situ measurements of microclimate conditions to further enhance the spatiotemporal resolution of global soil temperature products for ecological applications

Global maps of soil temperature.

Research in global change ecology relies heavily on global climatic grids derived from estimates of air temperature in open areas at around 2 m above the ground. These climatic grids do not reflect conditions below vegetation canopies and near the ground surface, where critical ecosystem functions occur and most terrestrial species reside. Here, we provide global maps of soil temperature and bioclimatic variables at a 1-km2 resolution for 0-5 and 5-15 cm soil depth. These maps were created by calculating the difference (i.e. offset) between in situ soil temperature measurements, based on time series from over 1200 1-km2 pixels (summarized from 8519 unique temperature sensors) across all the world's major terrestrial biomes, and coarse-grained air temperature estimates from ERA5-Land (an atmospheric reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). We show that mean annual soil temperature differs markedly from the corresponding gridded air temperature, by up to 10°C (mean = 3.0 ± 2.1°C), with substantial variation across biomes and seasons. Over the year, soils in cold and/or dry biomes are substantially warmer (+3.6 ± 2.3°C) than gridded air temperature, whereas soils in warm and humid environments are on average slightly cooler (-0.7 ± 2.3°C). The observed substantial and biome-specific offsets emphasize that the projected impacts of climate and climate change on near-surface biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are inaccurately assessed when air rather than soil temperature is used, especially in cold environments. The global soil-related bioclimatic variables provided here are an important step forward for any application in ecology and related disciplines. Nevertheless, we highlight the need to fill remaining geographic gaps by collecting more in situ measurements of microclimate conditions to further enhance the spatiotemporal resolution of global soil temperature products for ecological applications

Influence of Climatic and Non-climatic Factors on Range Dynamics and Conservation Priorities of Long-distance Migratory Birds

Understanding factors influencing species' distributions and their dynamics over space and time is a fundamental question in ecology that is receiving renewed interest given increasing threats of global climate change to species persistence. Species are shifting their distributions in response to climate change; however in spite of general directional trends northwards and up in elevation there is substantial interspecific variation. The complexity of species' responses is challenging to explain and limits our predictive capacity to anticipate future consequences of climate change. In addition to climatic factors, species' range dynamics are influenced by non-climatic factors including the biotic interactions, demography, dispersal, and the temporal and spatial scale of threatening processes. The objective of this thesis is to test the role of climatic and non-climatic factors on seasonal range dynamics of long-distance migratory birds over multiple spatial scales, in the recent past, present, and in the future. An understanding of the determinants of Nearctic-Neotropical migratory bird distributions across their interconnected seasonal ranges remains unclear, and few climate change vulnerability assessments consider the complement of habitat dependencies required across their annual cycle. To address these research gaps, I applied multiple modeling methods with outcomes that are increasingly process-oriented. These include correlative species distribution models, dynamic occupancy modeling that account for detection probabilities, and coupled species distribution-metapopulation demographic models. Such modeling approaches allow for deeper inferences regarding the biological processes that actually drive shifts in species distributions over space and time. The main findings of my thesis include: (1) biotic vegetation factors improve species distribution model predictive accuracy measures across both seasonal ranges, and this has non-negligible consequences for spatial conservation priorities under climate change, (2) determinants of seasonal distributions of migratory birds tend to be dominated by abiotic factors, while seasonal differences within species suggest a role for dynamic seasonal niches, (3) short-term habitat changes can more strongly influence local extinction probabilities relative to inter-annual variation in weather suggesting that the temporal scale of climate change and habitat loss requires careful consideration, and (4) accounting for multiple sources of uncertainties is essential for improving models and can help inform robust management actions.Ph.D.2016-11-30 00:00:0

Advances in global sensitivity analyses of demographic-based species distribution models to address uncertainties in dynamic landscapes

Developing a rigorous understanding of multiple global threats to species persistence requires the use of integrated modeling methods that capture processes which influence species distributions. Species distribution models (SDMs) coupled with population dynamics models can incorporate relationships between changing environments and demographics and are increasingly used to quantify relative extinction risks associated with climate and land-use changes. Despite their appeal, uncertainties associated with complex models can undermine their usefulness for advancing predictive ecology and informing conservation management decisions. We developed a computationally-efficient and freely available tool (GRIP 2.0) that implements and automates a global sensitivity analysis of coupled SDM-population dynamics models for comparing the relative influence of demographic parameters and habitat attributes on predicted extinction risk. Advances over previous global sensitivity analyses include the ability to vary habitat suitability across gradients, as well as habitat amount and configuration of spatially-explicit suitability maps of real and simulated landscapes. Using GRIP 2.0, we carried out a multi-model global sensitivity analysis of a coupled SDM-population dynamics model of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) in Mount Rainier National Park as a case study and quantified the relative influence of input parameters and their interactions on model predictions. Our results differed from the one-at-time analyses used in the original study, and we found that the most influential parameters included the total amount of suitable habitat within the landscape, survival rates, and effects of a prevalent disease, white pine blister rust. Strong interactions between habitat amount and survival rates of older trees suggests the importance of habitat in mediating the negative influences of white pine blister rust. Our results underscore the importance of considering habitat attributes along with demographic parameters in sensitivity routines. GRIP 2.0 is an important decision-support tool that can be used to prioritize research, identify habitat-based thresholds and management intervention points to improve probability of species persistence, and evaluate trade-offs of alternative management options

Data from: Delaying conservation actions matters for species vulnerable to climate change

zipped folder contains 2 files: a csv file containing Eastern Massasauga Rattlesnake survival data and environmental covariates, and R code to perform simulations evaluating trade-offs between climate change adaptation decision points for conservation of threatened species